You are currently browsing the category archive for the 'Black Swan' category.

Some good advice.

When I play back in my mind all the “advice” people have given me, I see that only a couple of ideas have stuck with me for life. The rest have been mere words, and I am glad that I did not heed most of it. Most consisted of recommendations such as “be measured and reasonable in your statements” contradicting the Black Swan idea, since empirical reality is not “measured,” and its own version of “reasonableness” does not correspond to the conventional middlebrow definition. To be genuinely empirical is to reflect reality as faithfully as possible; to be honorable implies not fearing the appearance and consequences of being outlandish. The next time someone pesters you with unneeded advice; gently remind them of the fate of the monk whom Ivan the Terrible put to death for delivering uninvited (and moralizing) advice. It works as a short-term cure.

From “The Black Swan” by Dr. Nassim Nicholas Taleb

He also gave me another piece of advice, and that was to answer all the letters from the “unimportant” people first. Not only is that his advice, he practiced it by answering me in a day with more of his advice, on how to concentrate on getting well again.

I will continue putting those “unimportant people” first, just like you. Because the unimportant and unknown are more important, they are the unknown sources of knowledge and friendship, they are the unread books in your library. Thank you for your advice, Dr. Taleb.

Another piece of advice in this vein, was inscribed on Epicurus’s statues and mosaics. It said:

It is impossible to live a pleasant life without living wisely and honorably and justly, and it is impossible to live wisely and honorably and justly without living pleasantly.

And from “The Letter to Pythocles”:

For we must not theorize scientifically about nature by means of empty maxims and arbitrary principles, but as phenomena require. For our life has no need of foolishness and idle opinion, but of an existence free from confusion.

And I promised a lovely red-headed neighbor a statue… I better get moving on it. Ta, and I hope my “mere words of advice” for today are of some use to someone!

I think I just experienced it. I was going to post part two of my essay… but it’s temporarily interrupted by a moment of complete enlightenment.

I’ve been working my way through “The Black Swan” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Of any books to completely transform my mind in a while, I think this one is doing the job. I’ve read many of Karl Popper’s books, and familiar with his scepticism. But Popper isn’t affecting me like Taleb’s visual description of the mathematics. And ultimately, I think in pictures, not mathematical equations. This is probably why I do 3d art, and wasn’t too interested in becoming a mathematician.

For all my reasoning ability, I came to this in a completely illogical manner. I credit the impression of that swan on the cover of the book, putting that swerving image in my brain. And then I started to imagine Mediocristan and Extremistan, as Taleb amusingly calls the bell curve equation, in his talk when I was surfing YouTube and ended up on ForaTV. (watch the whole speech here.) And then a day later, snap. I saw the swerve of Lucretius unbidden in my mind as I picked up the book to continue reading it. The swerve of unforeseen events that human agency needs to be able to react to.

Read the rest of this entry »

RSS Plurking..

  • hypatiaa The article that started me down this road. tinyurl.com/yb5n59u November 11, 2009 hypatiaa
  • hypatiaa Brownian motion under the microscope www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/10/051016091931.htm November 11, 2009 hypatiaa
  • hypatiaa Rethinking Brownian Motion With The 'Emperor's New Clothes' www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/07/090727191300.htm November 11, 2009 hypatiaa
  • hypatiaa The Long Tail of Snake Oil minervan.wordpress.com/2009/11/09/the-long-tail-of-snake-oil/ November 9, 2009 hypatiaa

Library Thing!

ArtSeduction Store

hyp's flickr

the Blue Mermaid back rooms

Pink kitteh in the Blue Mermaid

Pink kitteh in the Blue Mermaid

More Photos

 

November 2009
M T W T F S S
« Sep    
 1
2345678
9101112131415
16171819202122
23242526272829
30